NU to Big Ten: Impact on the Gophers

Now that the Nebraska move to the Big Ten is unofficially official and reported by every sports news outlet on Earth, it’s time to get done to brass tax: what does this move mean for the Gophers? Before getting into specifics, I’ll just say that I’m glad that Minnesota is safely nestled behind the castle walls of the Big Ten, while the conference’s Templar commissioner Jim Delaney savagely crusades against the Big XII, Big East and ACC, leaving programs among the bloody remains of a now wasteland conference. Specifically, I’m glad we’re not Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State or Missouri.

Moving on, let’s take a look at the impact of Nebraska’s move to the Big Ten from 3 angles: on the field, recruiting and a third factor  - that I won’t refer to as je ne sais quoi – referring to new-found pageantry surrounding the move.

A while back, I gave a critique of an analysisBuck Bravo did over at The Daily Gopher using past opponent Sagarin ratings to predict the 2010 season. To sum it up, I hypothesized that the Gophers tend to struggle (read: rarely win) against teams with Sagarin ratings above 80, generally do well against teams below 70 and find a range between 75-80 where their opponents are “turning point” games, games that typically define how well the Gophers will perform over the given season. Now that the Huskers have joined the conference, what does their Sagarin ratings look like going back to 2000?

As the chart shows, aside from a period under former Nebraska coach Bill Callahan, the Huskers have performed above the 80 point Sagarin threshold where the Gophers typically struggle. In a nut shell, on most average years, I expect Big Red to be one of the tougher opponents on the Minnesota schedule.

What about recruiting?
Nebraska is not an area that the Gophers recruit that much, if at all – Brewster and Co. have only offered one prospect from the Cornhusker State to date. Furthermore, Nebraska is not a state that produces a significant amount of college athletes and a smaller population state with limited metro areas, making the Nebraska addition to the Big Ten not impactful from a Gopher recruiting perspective.

Where it mayimprove Gopher recruiting in the short and perhaps long term is in Kansas and Missouri. Now that the Big XII appears to be finished, Mizzou and Kansas are currently left out in the cold of a power conference. Without the draw of the Big XII and the uncertainty over which conference the local universities will play in, local Kansas and Missouri prospects may be more inclined to choose Big Ten schools with the closest proximity to home. Those would be Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

What is this Pagaentry you speak of?
For one, Minnesota and Nebraska actually have a long and storied history: the Gophers have played Nebraska more in their history (51 times) than Ohio State (49), Michigan State (42) and Penn State (11). The Gophers also have a winning record against the Huskers, posting a 29-20-2 overall record against Big Red. However, the two teams haven’t met since 1990 and hasn’t won against Nebraska since 1960. That said, this is a very old school, classic rivalry that will get re-ignited now that the Cornhuskers are part of the Big Ten and likely will be grouped within the same division as Minnesota. It’s also a throwback to the Gopher glory years and will create good “pageantry” on game day. Not to mention a huge draw for the first home game against NE at The Bank.

Tags: college football, football, Golden Gophers, Minnesota

This entry was posted on Thursday, June 10th, 2010 at 2:19 pm and is filed under Expansion. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.